McNutt Against the Music

Of all the weekends to be too busy to blog…

Yes, these are exciting times for Canadian political junkies; heck, one might make the case that what’s happening right now in Parliament is significantly more exciting than the actual election two months ago, if only because the outcome is much less certain.

To any confused foreigners who might be reading this, a quick summary: here in Canada we don’t elect our head of government like, say, Americans elect their president. We vote for individual Members of Parliament in our local constituencies (308 of them across the country) and the political party with the most seats usually forms the government, with their leader becoming Prime Minister and its prominent MPs forming the cabinet.

I say “usually” because our system can sometimes produce minority parliaments, where no one party commands an automatic majority of seats. Most of the time, the party with the most seats forms the government and has to rely on the support from at least one other party to get anything passed. However, it is entirely possible for two parties with fewer seats to join together in a formal coalition and argue that they have a stronger case for sitting as the government. If the Governor General – the surrogate for the Queen, our Head of State – agrees, he or she can give them an opportunity to try and govern.

There’s really no historical precedent for what’s happening right now. You’ll hear the King-Byng Affair of 1925 mentioned quite a bit, but it’s not quite an analogous situation: Mackenzie King’s Liberals actually had less seats than the Conservatives after the previous election, but made the case to Governor General Lord Byng to stay in power with the support of – but not a formal coalition with – the Progressives. So when King’s government fell on a confidence vote, and Byng decided to let the Conservatives try and govern rather than call an election, he was really going back to what would conventionally happened in the first place.

The King-Byng Affair is important, though, because it set a precedent: if the government falls, and the Governor General believes that there is a viable governing alternative within the House of Commons, he or she can enable them to govern rather than call an immediate election (which is usually what happens after a confidence vote).

There are good reasons why this scenario has only happened once. First, minority governments are historically rare in Canada, and have only become commonplace in recent years thanks to some shifting political dynamics. Secondly, most parties tend to be bullish about their electoral prospects and choose to bring down a government precisely because they want an election. Most importantly, though, replacing a sitting government without an election requires a unique combination of political will and popular support. Not only would the public have to back the idea of two or more less-popular political parties ganging up on the most popular, but the MPs themselves would need a good reason to put aside their political differences and work together as a government.

On Thursday, Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper handed the opposition parties an oversized steak of good reason on a silver platter.

In what will end up ranking alongside “I’m suspending my campaign to focus on the economy” and “let me introduce you to my running mate, Sarah Palin” as the stupidest political moves of 2008, Harper’s government introduced an economic update on Thursday – a mini-budget if you will – that sent the three opposition parties into a shitstorm. There was a lot of reason for Canada’s centre-left parties to get uppity about, from the lack of aggressive economic stimulus to the banning of public sector strikes for two years. But the straw that broke the camel’s back was that in an effort to cut costs, Harper’s government was planning to end subsidies to political parties.

Why would getting rid of the $1.75 per vote that Canada’s parties receive from the government be such a big deal to the opposition parties? Because removing this measly $28 million from the budget is a bold assault on their very existence. The subsidy accounts for 57 per cent of NDP money, 63 per cent of Liberal funds and a staggering 86 per cent of the Bloc Quebecois’ income. In contrast, the Conservatives’ fundraising prowess means that a measly 37 per cent of their total revenues comes from the government.

Whether or not you believe that the government subsidy should be in place is one thing (Andrew Coyne made an interesting “no” case at Maclean’s yesterday, but I think he too readily presumes that an American-style political contribution culture – ala the Obama campaign – could be duplicated here). But regardless, this is a brazenly opportunistic move by the Prime Minister, an attempt to strong-arm the opposition into near-irrelevance while using the global economic crisis as a backdrop. It’s exactly the kind of shit that you’re not supposed to pull in a minority government where the other parties hold the balance of power.

But Harper saw a chance to turn his party’s electoral advantage into a structural one. With Stephane Dion sitting a lame duck leader for the Liberals – his replacement wasn’t to be named until May – and with absolutely no public desire for a second election in two months, he seized on the opportunity to continue governing the way he did before the election: under the presumption that the Liberals would back down and acquiesce to avoid going to the polls. So instead of extending out his hand in compromise, embracing his second consecutive minority with a sense of humility, Harper reached out and gave opposition parties a slap across the face and told them to take it.

He clearly didn’t expect they’d punch back.

The funniest part about this whole ordeal thus far has been watching the Conservatives react as news reports about a prospective Liberal/NDP coalition alternative began to spread. When it became clear that the two parties were serious – probably when former leaders Jean Chretien and Ed Broadbent got involved – the Conservatives reversed their brazen tone and began to backtrack on nearly everything: they removed the confidence vote on subsidies, delayed the banning of strikes, stated that a stimulus package would be forthcoming in the new year…

But you can’t put the Jack [Layton?] back in the box so easily. Harper got greedy, failing to foresee that threatening the end of Federal funding for parties would bring about a tipping point, an event not unlike like if Sisyphus actually reached the top of the mountain and watched his boulder roll down the other side. Harper’s attempts to offer concessions now, after the fact, are almost silly: why would the opposition be content with concessions from the government if they believe they can actually BE the government?

Friday night, Harper bought some time, using a procedural motion to delay any confidence votes until next Monday. There are only two things that can stop this coming boulder now, though, and he only can influence one of them: public support. You can bet your sweet dollar that Harper and the Conservatives will be spending every moment they can this week talking to Canadians about how this is an undemocratic seizure of power by Stephane Dion, the separatists and the NDP,* an argument undermined significantly by the fact that Harper made a similar but less-substantiated case to the Governer General unsuccessfully four years ago.

* Watching Harper’s speech on Friday, I was struck by how he described all three parties. The Bloc’s separatist views were pointed out, the Liberals were referred to only as their lame-duck unpopular leader but the NDP were just “the NDP.” To the audience Harper is trying to reach, merely pointing out the party’s name is enough of a slur to invoke fear, one supposes.

But Harper has little control over what the Liberals, NDP and the Bloc do, and that’s ultimately where this bold, unprecedented coalition will live or die. The biggest stumbling block is the role of Prime Minister. Had the Liberals not had an unpopular interim leader, I suspect this thing would be a done deal already. But even if everyone and their mother suspects that Michael Ignatieff will handily win the leadership in May, to install him now would threaten to alienate many within the party. Harper is hoping that the extra week will ensure that the tensions between the three parties – and within the Liberal Party – show themselves before this thing ever comes to a confidence vote.

If he’s wrong, though, and if this extra week only shores up this bold, historic coalition…then we’re in for one hell of an interesting time in Canadian politics.

Edit: The Globe and Mail reports that as of this afternoon, the three parties have agreed that Dion will head a coalition government. Who would have even thought this possible a month ago? Stunning…