Filed under: News and politics
What a long, strange election trip it’s been (summarized brilliantly at thisfuckingelection.com). This morning, Survey USA re-posted the results of a poll they conducted exactly two years ago today where they pitted several of the hypothetical 2008 contenders against one another. Here’s how their Obama/McCain map looked:
A McCain landslide – Obama was poised to only win his home state of Illinois, his birth state of Hawaii and the overwhelmingly-African American District of Columbia. This demonstrates just how much of an unknown Barack Obama was two short years ago, and how much he trailed in awareness to his future Republican challenger.
In contrast, here is my prediction for the map that we’ll all be waking up to tomorrow morning (using the wonderful Daily Kos scoreboard tool):
Like most prognosticators, my map has Obama holding every state that John Kerry won in 2004 – a reality that, if it holds true, makes John McCain’s path to victory enormously difficult (and why he’s spent most of the past week trying to flip Pennsylvania, which I don’t think he will). From there, Obama’s wins in Iowa and New Mexico are sure bets and have been so for months now. From there, Obama only needs to win one more swing state to cross the 270 electoral vote threshold and become President Elect. I’m confident that both Virginia and Colorado – where Obama’s lead has been holding steady – will deliver for Obama and make him the next President of the United States.
From there, it’s a crap shoot. Obama’s ceiling is incredibly high, and it’s conceivable that we could see a wave emerge that allows him to surpass Bill Clinton’s 2006 total of 376 electoral votes; the highest for a Democrat in the modern era. My good friend Glen Russell is smoking that Hope-ium pipe and predicts that Obama is coming out of tonight with 396 electoral votes. I hate to rain on a parade that I’d love to see happen, but I just don’t think it’s realistic.
So here’s where I see the map going from my Kerry+NM+IO+CO+VI foundation. Florida and Ohio, as always, are genuine tossups. I’ve split them, with Florida being the more likely to go for Obama (in my book, at least – I don’t think Palin plays well there and has possibly moved a lot of voters to Team Blue). Missouri is another unknown and might not be called until late into the night; I’m feeling optimistic after the 2006 senate race that it will end up Democrat when all is said and done. I think Indiana will be a noble but lost cause, but North Carolina will pull through for Obama. There’s a lot of optimism around Georgia, and it may end up closer than we think, but I don’t see it flipping blue at the end of the evening. My wildcard prediction for the night: the presence of Ron Paul on the ballot leads to a squeaker in Montana that gives Obama the state’s three electoral votes.
So that tally puts Obama at 347, McCain at 191. If I’m wrong, let’s hope that I’m underestimating the blue tally, not overestimating it.
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353 seems more likely to me. I’d be surprised to see Montana go blue before Ohio.
Comment by Mike T November 4, 2008 @ 11:56 amProbably. I just have to be different, sometimes.
Comment by McNutt November 4, 2008 @ 1:50 pmWell Ron Paul is on the ballot there as a third-party candidate. Maybe Obama can ride the wave of the Ron Paul Revolution.
Comment by Mike T November 4, 2008 @ 2:32 pmI am 22 and I’d like to capture my thoughts before America either elects a president who its first 26 presidents could have legally owned, or brazenly subverts the very ideals it was founded upon by manipulating numbers in a final embarrassingly overt goosestep towards corporate totalitarianism.
I am nervous. And not night-before-the-swim-test nervous or even night-you-lose-your-virginity nervous, it’s a low rumbling primal panic which I can only liken to Star Wars panic. Disney panic. The edge-of-your-seat-terror that makes you wonder if Skywalker’s doomed after he refuses to join Darth Vader and drops down into the abyss, if the wicked octopus or grand vizier or steroid-pumping-village-misogynist is going to wed/kill/skin the dashing prince and then evil people in dark funny costumes are going to take over the world… if it wasn’t a movie of course.
And tonight it’s not. It’s not a movie and yet I feel like Obama might as well be wearing an American flag cape while a decaying McCain, in a high-tech robotic spider wheelchair wearing an eyepatch and stroking an evil cat, gives orders to a sexy scheming Palin who marches back and forth through their sub-terranian campaign lair in four inch thigh-highs and full-body black leather catsuit bossing around the evangelical ants with a loooooong whip… umm… is this just me?
Anyway, the point is that things feel weird folks. I have friends who have peed in waterbottles to keep from interrupting a Halo-playing marathon who got off their asses/couches to volunteer for the Obama campaign not once, but many times. Friends so cheap their body content is at least 1/3 Ramen Noodle who donated a good deal of their hard-earned cash to the campaign. People have registered to vote in record numbers, and yet, something just doesn’t feel right. I think we should stop congratulating ourselves for just voting. To vote is a privilege which people have died for, and I think there’s a whole lot more to be done for the country than to simply help win an election every 4 years.
Hundreds of millions of dollars, hundreds of thousands of man-hours spent on both sides by good-intentioned people who want to make a difference in an historic election, so many resources and voices and energies devoted to a single day. After tomorrow, half of that is going to have been a waste. And I can’t help but wonder what could have happened if all that muscle had been put towards something else, and what will happen to its momentum after the election has come and gone. Shouldn’t we be donating our money to good causes whenever we can? Helping people who don’t have? Dedicating some of our time to contribute to making the country which provides for us a better place? Of course a power shift is a hugely significant step on the path to great reform, but worrying about this election has been a wakeup call for me:
Even if Obama wins, we have not “won.” This isn’t a movie and we can’t toss every greedy lobbyist oil fatcat bigot down a reactor shaft. I think if we dedicate ourselves to the ongoing welfare of the country as much as we have to the outcome of this election, we’ll have a much better shot at coming closer to the overwhelming good the liberals hope Obama will usher in, but which no mere mortal could fully realize alone.
Which brings me to the other side. I’ve heard a lot of people claim that if McCain wins, they’re leaving. I heard the same thing about Bush’s reelection, and his unelection before that, and nobody seems to be leaving. And that’s fine. Because as much as I complain about certain political happenings, atrocities, etc., I really do like it here and I suspect most other people do too. We have New York and Hollywood, purple mountain’s majesty and sea to shining sea, we created jazz and country music and baseball and cars and lightbulbs and computers and that movie with hundreds of animated singing Chihuahuas! I mean who among the shivering Plymouth pilgrims ever imagined ordering hundreds of animated singing chihuahuas onto a magical box from an invisible information superweb?
The point being, if things don’t turn out the way I want tomorrow, I feel compelled, as a college-graduated adultish-type-person, to take a stand. And if I’m going to leave I’m going to leave. But if I’m going to stay I’m not going to sit around whining like I have for the past 8 years. It’s like when I don’t clean my room because it’s dirty and then I blame the dirt. So in my very indecisive way, before you and your screen, I’m declaring my intention to make some kind of stand in the event of -(Ican’tevensayit)-, and encouraging you to consider making one too…
Jump the ship or grab a bucket?
-Sigh-
Wasn’t everything so much easier back when the worst possible affront to your values was a PB&J sandwich cut diagonally with crust?
Anyways, I guess what I’m saying is that if we’re going to stay on board, we should probably be generous with our time and resources when times are tough even more than when the hero saves the day. Because what if he doesn’t? And what if he can’t? If we’re serious about real change, election day should only be the beginning of “Yes we can,” not the end.
Best,
Comment by Hannah Friedman November 4, 2008 @ 6:14 pmHannah Friedman
http://www.writinghannah.blogspot.com